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Tropical Storm CHRIS (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006

THE COMBINATION OF DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR AND SHEAR...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE THAT DROPPED SOUTHWARD INTO CHRIS...HAS
TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  CHRIS IS DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 75 N MI RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  SOME HEAVY
SHOWERS CONTINUE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
WESTWARD INTO HISPANIOLA TODAY.

DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT
CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.  IF
IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER.  THE FORECAST RETAINS THE
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS A
PRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...SINCE
THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON. 

THE MOTION CONTINUES BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT.  A
WELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED TO
THE NORTH OF CHRIS...OR ITS REMNANT...THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THIS STEERING REGIME WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM ON
A 280-285 DEGREE HEADING AT ROUGHLY 10-12 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT
TOO FAR FROM THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 20.5N  67.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 20.7N  68.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 21.1N  70.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 21.4N  73.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 21.8N  75.2W    30 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 23.0N  80.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 24.0N  85.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 25.0N  90.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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