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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
0300Z SUN JUN 11 2006
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
HARTFORD CO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) X(20)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) 1(19)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) 1(18)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 2(19) X(19)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 1(21) X(21)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 11(27) 1(28) X(28)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 9(27) X(27) X(27)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 6(24) X(24) X(24)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
FT MYERS FL 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16)
VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 8(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 13(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 16(32) 5(37) X(37) X(37)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 13(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
APALACHICOLA 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 11(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) 9(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 5( 5) 14(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 246N 866W 34 33 16(49) 1(50) X(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51)
12 246N 866W 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
12 246N 866W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 265N 865W 34 3 40(43) 11(54) 1(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56)
24 265N 865W 50 X 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
24 265N 865W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
36 280N 850W 34 1 9(10) 34(44) 6(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51)
36 280N 850W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
36 280N 850W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
48 295N 830W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 18(31) 5(36) X(36) X(36)
48 295N 830W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
48 295N 830W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
72 335N 770W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) X(22)
72 335N 770W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
72 335N 770W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
96 395N 700W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21)
96 395N 700W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
96 395N 700W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 485N 570W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
120 485N 570W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
120 485N 570W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 35 40 40 40
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:33 UTC