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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1300Z SAT JUN 10 2006
AT 1300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HARTFORD CO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 5(20)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 4(19)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 2(21)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 1(16)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) 1(24)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 9(30) 1(31)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 8(32) X(32)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20(24) 6(30) X(30)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) X(25)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) X(20)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) 1(17)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) 1(13)
MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)
KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 2(18) 1(19)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 2(22) X(22)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 16(27) 3(30) X(30)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 22(31) 3(34) 1(35)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 23(32) 4(36) X(36)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) 4(28) X(28)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 17(26) 4(30) X(30)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 18(32) 3(35) X(35)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 18(38) 2(40) X(40)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 16(28) 2(30) X(30)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) 1(14)
COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10)
MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 1(18) X(18)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 11(32) 1(33) 1(34)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 5(22) 1(23) X(23)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 27 5(32) 1(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
HAVANA 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
ISLE OF PINES 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 220N 857W 34 27 14(41) 1(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
12 220N 857W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
12 220N 857W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 239N 867W 34 1 37(38) 12(50) 3(53) X(53) 1(54) X(54)
24 239N 867W 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
24 239N 867W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
36 256N 869W 34 X 12(12) 32(44) 8(52) 3(55) X(55) 1(56)
36 256N 869W 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
36 256N 869W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
48 272N 861W 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 22(42) 8(50) 1(51) X(51)
48 272N 861W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17)
48 272N 861W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
72 295N 825W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 23(29) 4(33) 1(34)
72 295N 825W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10)
72 295N 825W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
96 340N 770W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 4(20)
96 340N 770W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
96 340N 770W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
120 420N 670W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
120 420N 670W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
120 420N 670W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 50 50 45 45
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:33 UTC