Tropical Storm ALBERTO

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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006
 
A FEW HOURS AGO...A PARTIAL EYEWALL DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS EVENT MARKED ALBERTO'S
LAST OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS FLEW ACROSS THIS FEATURE A COUPLE OF TIMES AND INDICATED
THAT THE WINDS WERE WELL BELOW HURRICANE FORCE.  BASED ON SYNOPTIC
AND RECON DATA...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT.  THE
CENTER IS NOW PRACTICALLY ONSHORE SO WEAKENING WILL OCCUR.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO FOLLOWS THE INLAND
DECAY MODEL.  BEYOND THAT TIME...WE EXPECT ALBERTO TO BE TRANSFORMED
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN A BIT IN
2-5 DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. 
 
RADAR AND AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS WOBBLING BETWEEN
A NNE AND NE HEADING.  SMOOTHING BETWEEN THESE FIXES YIELDS AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 035/8.  A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA IS PREDICTED TO DROP INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND KICK ALBERTO....OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL VERSION...
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 29.8N  83.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 31.3N  82.9W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 33.4N  80.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 36.5N  75.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 39.5N  70.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 47.0N  57.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 53.0N  40.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     18/1200Z 55.0N  18.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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