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Tropical Storm ALBERTO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
500 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006
 
ALTHOUGH THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASS THROUGH ALBERTO NEAR
05Z FOUND ONLY A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A MINIMUM OF 1006 MB
AND NO CLEAR CENTER...THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
THEN.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND BUILT WESTWARD AGAINST THE
SHEAR...AND THE LOW-CLOUD LINES IN THE NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT A CENTER IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS
CONVECTION.  A DROPSONDE ON THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION REPORTED 40
KT AT THE SURFACE AT 06Z...AND THE PRESSURE AT BUOY 42003 HAS
FALLEN TO 1002.9 MB.  BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT.  THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT THREE HOURS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/7.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF ALBERTO...WHICH IS STILL EMBEDDED
IN A ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS BOTH DROP AN UPPER LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF THAT
BACKS THE FLOW JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN INDICATING A
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST.

NONE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY...BUT IF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE
CORRECT IT WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME FURTHER ORGANIZATION. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

THE LARGE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DICTATES A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AT THIS TIME.  THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 26.2N  87.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 27.1N  86.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 28.1N  85.6W    55 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 29.5N  83.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 31.0N  81.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 35.0N  73.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 41.5N  64.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     17/0600Z 46.5N  52.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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