Tropical Storm ALBERTO

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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
500 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006
 
SEVERAL HOURS AGO...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AGAIN MEASURED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF CLOSE TO 50 KT...BUT IN A BAND THAT WAS EVEN
FARTHER FROM THE CENTER THAN IN THE EARLIER PASS.  SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BECOME DISPLACED
FARTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER THAN THEY WERE THIS
MORNING.  INDEED...THE SYSTEM HAS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBTROPICAL
APPEARANCE AT THE MOMENT.  BECAUSE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER TODAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CYCLONE IS WEAKENING...AND DATA FROM THE NEXT MISSION OF THE AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS AROUND 0000 UTC COULD CONFIRM THIS
SUSPICION.  DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE PATH OF ALBERTO.  EVEN
SO...THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE DO PREDICT SOME STRENGTHENING.
GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE LESS THAN CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...
ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THE CIRCULATION IS BROAD...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A CENTER.
THE FIXES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND A BIT...BUT OVERALL A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IS ESTIMATED.  ASSUMING THAT ALBERTO IS ABLE TO
HOLD TOGETHER VERTICALLY...A DEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WOULD GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT.  SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL
MODEL...SHOW A WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT CROSS FLORIDA.  THE
GFS SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT
SPREADS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A NON-TROPICAL-LOOKING AMPLIFICATION
NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE.  BECAUSE OF THE DIVERGENCE
IN MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  HOWEVER SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN
BANDS AS MUCH AS 200 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER WHICH COULD REACH THE
COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
BEING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST ON THIS
ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 24.5N  87.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 25.4N  87.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 26.5N  87.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 27.8N  85.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 29.0N  83.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 33.0N  77.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 39.0N  67.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     16/1800Z 46.0N  54.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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