ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006 THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEW DATA TO COME IN SINCE THE SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 1115Z. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR SYSTEMS WITH 30-35 KT WINDS... IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT QUIKSCAT GREATLY OVERESTIMATED THE WIND SPEEDS IN RAIN-CONTAMINATED AREAS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN AREAS... THE RETRIEVED WINDS WERE AS STRONG AS 25-30 KT... SO HOLDING THE ESTIMATE FOR THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 30 KT SEEMS REASONABLE. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SEVERAL SMALL CIRCULATIONS ROTATING ABOUT A MEAN CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL 340/10 BUT REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED IN BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LACKING ANY NEW TRACK GUIDANCE... THE SCENARIOS PAINTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ALL REMAIN POSSIBILITIES. THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CANADIAN MODELS STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE UKMET TURNS IT WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. MEANWHILE THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF MODELS SPLIT THE DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS... WITH THE LARGER ONE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS AND GFDL TRACKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TREAT THIS AS A SINGLE RECURVING SYSTEM THAT SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY... THERE IS A GREATER THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TRACK FORECAST. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO DOMINATE OVER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM... AND INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE APPEARS UNLIKELY IN THAT ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN PEAKS AT 50 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF... GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 21.5N 85.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 22.9N 86.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 24.7N 86.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 27.8N 85.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 31.0N 81.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 14/1200Z 36.5N 74.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 15/1200Z 45.0N 63.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:33 UTC