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Tropical Depression ONE (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
800 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND RADAR DATA FROM
WESTERN CUBA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.  THE ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED TO
THE WEST OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE AREA WITH TOPS TO -85C.  SATELLITE
AND RADAR DATA SHOW AT LEAST TWO SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION...WITH THE ADVISORY POSITION
BEING THAT OF THE OVERALL MEAN CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 340/10.  THE DEPRESSION
IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A COL
AREA BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
SEVERAL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS.  THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TROUGH...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND STALLS THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF
MODELS SPLIT THE DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS...WHILE THE UKMET
TURNS IT WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS.  THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE
RECURVATURE SCENARIO AND BRING THE CENTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN ABOUT 72 HR.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREATER THAN NORMAL
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME EMBEDDED
IN MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES BETWEEN THE U. S.
TROUGH AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. 
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE INTENSITY TO REACH 50 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL.  IF THE CYCLONE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST
TRACK...INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1300Z 21.1N  85.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 22.0N  85.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 23.9N  86.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 25.6N  86.9W    45 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 27.2N  86.1W    50 KT
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 29.5N  82.5W    50 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     14/0600Z 34.0N  77.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     15/0600Z 42.0N  67.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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