Hurricane EMILY

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HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  38B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005
 
...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES ERRATIC WOBBLING TOWARD
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.
 
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 2 AM CDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES... 145 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 95
MILES... 155 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
 
RADAR DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN
BROWNSVILLE SHOWS THAT WHILE THE EYE OF EMILY IS WOBBLING...THE
HURRICANE IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  8
MPH...13 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10 MPH IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO THIS MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EMILY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...
AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.  OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE BROWNSVILLE-
PORT ISABEL AREA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS  944 MB...27.88 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
 
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND
OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
 
REPEATING THE 2 AM CDT POSITION...24.6 N... 96.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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