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Hurricane EMILY


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BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005
 
...HURRICANE EMILY BEARING DOWN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO
CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.  A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  85.9 WEST OR ABOUT  90 MILES...
145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT  270 MILES... 440
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.
 
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...
BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY
MAKES LANDFALL.  WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CENTER OF EMILY
CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.  NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 73 MPH WITH A GUST TO 85 MPH.
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF  951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN MEXICO.  

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA.
 
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...19.6 N... 85.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 951 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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