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Hurricane EMILY


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TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

...HURRICANE WARNINGS DISCONTINUED AS EMILY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL
   STORM OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...EMILY STILL A HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADO THREAT...
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA PESCA
MEXICO. THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...ALL WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED
INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 99.2 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES ... 130 KM... SOUTHEAST OF
MONTERREY MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM...SOUTHWEST OF
MCALLEN TEXAS.
 
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
TAKING EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY WILL
LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
...260 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. RECENTLY...
MATAMOROS MEXICO REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 51 MPH. ALSO...DOPPLER
RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THAT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW HURRICANE
FORCE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO INTO THIS EVENING. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
 
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 99.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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