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Hurricane EMILY


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BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005
 
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EMILY PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL
NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS
MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF EMILY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...
165 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 365 MILES...
585 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
 
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR
HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. 
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  938 MB...27.70 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  COASTAL
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
WESTERN CUBA.  STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
12 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...18.0 N... 82.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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