Hurricane OTIS

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HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152005
1500Z SAT OCT 01 2005
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO.  A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS.
 
AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO
NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  90SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 111.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N 112.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.6N 112.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 25.2N 113.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.0N 113.3W...INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 31.0N 113.0W...INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 34.0N 112.5W...INLAND OVER ARIZONA
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 111.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
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