ZCZC MIATCMEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 1500Z FRI SEP 30 2005 AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO BAHIA MAGDALENA ALONG TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA... BUT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. AT 8 AM PDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 110.7W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 110.7W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.8N 111.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.5N 111.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.5N 112.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 26.0N 113.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W...INLAND CENTRAL BAJA MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 31.5N 112.0W...INLAND NWRN MEXICO MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 110.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 30-Sep-2005 14:25:18 UTC