Hurricane HILARY

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HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082005
2100Z SUN AUG 21 2005
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT.......140NE  90SE  75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 200SE 175SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.4N 109.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.4N 111.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.3N 114.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  35SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 22.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 23.5N 122.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 107.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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