Hurricane WILMA

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HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL242005
1500Z WED OCT 19 2005
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SWAN ISLAND.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BELIZE FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER SOUTH TO BELIZE
CITY.  
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  83.2W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  882 MB
EYE DIAMETER   5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  20SE  20SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  45SE  45SW  70NW.
34 KT.......140NE  90SE  90SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  83.2W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  82.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N  84.0W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  20SE  20SW  45NW.
50 KT... 70NE  45SE  45SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  90SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.1N  85.1W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N  85.9W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N  86.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N  84.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 30.0N  77.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 39.0N  69.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  83.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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