Tropical Depression TWENTY

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202005
2100Z SAT OCT 01 2005
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  86.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  86.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  86.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.8N  87.9W...INLAND EASTERN YUCATAN
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.4N  89.8W...INLAND WESTERN YUCATAN
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.0N  91.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.4N  93.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.6N  96.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N  99.0W...INLAND EASTERN MEXICO
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N  86.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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