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Hurricane OPHELIA


ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162005
1500Z THU SEP 15 2005
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N  75.7W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  65 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  35SE  30SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  35NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 225SE 200SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N  75.7W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  75.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.0N  75.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  35NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.7N  74.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 37.1N  73.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 39.2N  70.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 44.2N  63.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N  56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 51.0N  40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N  75.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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