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Hurricane OPHELIA


ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162005
0300Z THU SEP 15 2005
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR IS
DISCONTINUED.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SURF CITY TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N  76.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  35SE  30SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  35NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 200SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N  76.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N  76.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.7N  75.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  35NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.3N  74.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 36.3N  73.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 38.0N  71.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 42.5N  65.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 46.5N  56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 50.0N  42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N  76.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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