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Tropical Storm OPHELIA


ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162005
0900Z WED SEP 07 2005
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER
BEACH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.  ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N  78.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE   0SE   0SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N  78.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N  78.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.5N  79.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 28.8N  79.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.0N  80.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 29.4N  80.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 29.8N  80.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 30.1N  80.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N  79.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N  78.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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