Hurricane KATRINA

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HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122005
0300Z SAT AUG 27 2005
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY LARGO SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  83.6W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  35SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  75SE  55SW  35NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  83.6W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  83.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 24.6N  84.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 25.0N  86.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N  87.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.0N  89.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE  65SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.5N  89.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE  65SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 35.0N  87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 40.5N  81.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N  83.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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