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Hurricane EMILY


ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052005
1500Z MON JUL 18 2005
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO MEXICO NORTHWARD
TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
 
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N  89.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT.......100NE  40SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 125SE  50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 200SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N  89.6W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  88.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.8N  91.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  15SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  40SE  25SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE  75SE  50SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.9N  94.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  25SE  15SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  40SE  25SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE  75SE  50SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.5N  96.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  40SE  40SW 100NW.
34 KT...130NE  75SE  75SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.0N  99.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 25.5N 104.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N  89.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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