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Hurricane EMILY


ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052005
1500Z SUN JUL 17 2005
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO CAMPECHE.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS
MUJERES.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS CANCELLED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF EMILY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  83.6W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  946 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  35SE  25SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE  80SE  50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 215SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  83.6W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  82.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N  85.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  35SE  25SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE  80SE  50SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.9N  88.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  25SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 90NE  35SE  25SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE  50SE  40SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.2N  91.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  15SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  25SE  25SW  75NW.
34 KT...125NE  80SE  50SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.1N  94.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
34 KT...125NE  75SE  75SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N  99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...125NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 24.5N 104.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N  83.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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