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Hurricane EMILY (Text)

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HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052005
1500Z THU JUL 14 2005
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER.  THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
 
AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  64.0W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE  90SE  60SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  64.0W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  63.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.3N  66.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.5N  69.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.6N  73.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N  76.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N  83.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N  89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.5N  94.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N  64.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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