ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU OCT 20 2005 IT CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER OF CIRCULATION. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS AND NO DOMINANT CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS MUCH AS ANYTHING ELSE...AND IS WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THE 25-KNOT CURRENT INTENSITY IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THE DEPRESSION IS APPROACHING AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 130W. THIS...ALONG WITH THE CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED STATE OF THE SYSTEM...MAKES STRENGTHENING UNLIKELY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...UNLESS A DEFINITE CENTER IS IDENTIFIED SOON...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED...AGAIN...LATER TODAY. THE INITIAL MOTION OF 285/10 IS A CRUDE ESTIMATE...AT BEST. THE TROUGH ALONG 130W IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD. IF SIXTEEN-E WERE A DEEP AND STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS TROUGH WOULD BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION. HOWEVER THE DEPRESSION IS VERY WEAK...AND WILL PROBABLY NOT RESPOND TO DEEP-LAYER STEERING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 12.6N 118.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 13.0N 119.7W 25 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 13.5N 121.1W 25 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 13.9N 122.0W 25 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 14.2N 122.5W 25 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 14.5N 123.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 15.0N 124.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 25/1200Z 15.0N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 20-Oct-2005 14:55:27 UTC