ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU OCT 20 2005 IT WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. IT IS EVEN HARDER TO FIND IT NOW. IT APPEARS THAT CENTER WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE VERY LIMITED CONVECTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION USING CONTINUITY IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD OR WEST NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SEEMS THAT THE CHANCES FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE DIMINISHING SINCE THE CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE SEPARATED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...WE ARE KEEPING THE SAME PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE IMAGES LATER TODAY COULD BE HELPFUL IN CLARIFYING IF WE HAVE A DEPRESSION OR NOT. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 12.6N 117.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 13.0N 118.5W 25 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 13.5N 120.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 14.0N 121.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 14.5N 122.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 15.0N 122.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 15.5N 123.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 16.0N 124.0W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 20-Oct-2005 08:25:24 UTC