ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON OCT 17 2005 SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE DEPRESSION. WHAT LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 1.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA...HENCE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NEIGHBORING ITCZ IS REMARKABLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH INDICATES A LARGE-SCALE STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION...SMALL CIRCULATION SIZE...AND DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...SHOULD MITIGATE AGAINST REGENERATION. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 48-72 HOURS...BUT UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION MAKES A SIGNIFICANT COMEBACK... DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR MUCH SOONER. THE CENTER OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRL IS RATHER EASY TO TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 270/07. A LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... THEREFORE A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR REMNANT LOW...IS PREDICTED. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 12.1N 106.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 12.1N 107.3W 25 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 12.0N 108.9W 25 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 12.0N 110.5W 25 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 12.0N 112.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 20/1200Z 12.0N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 21/1200Z 12.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 17-Oct-2005 14:40:26 UTC