ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005 A 0819 UTC AMSU PASS INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF TD-16E WAS SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAS ALSO CONFIRMED BY THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY WHICH SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE 2.0 FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 2.5 FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AT 280/5...AND PERHAPS EVEN FURTHER TO THE RIGHT THAN INDICATED HERE. A LARGE AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REACH ITS MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT BY 24 HOURS THEN SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO TO SLOWLY BUILD/SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF TD-16E SHOULD ACT TO FORCE THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT THAT THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 22 KT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE TO 15 KT IN 36 HOURS AND TO 10-15 KT THROUGH DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM STATUS...IT COULD BECOME ONE MUCH SOONER IF THE SHEAR RELAXES JUST A LITTLE BIT. FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 11.3N 103.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 11.4N 103.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 11.4N 104.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 11.1N 105.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 10.7N 106.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 10.0N 109.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 10.0N 112.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 10.0N 116.0W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 16-Oct-2005 14:40:27 UTC