ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...WITH ONE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER REMAINING NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THERE IS POOR TO FAIR CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND NONE ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/2. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W-125W. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD FILL STARTING IN ABOUT 48-72 HR...AND THE RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BUILD WESTWARD. THIS MEANS IN THE LONGER TERM THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TAKE A WESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER...THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GFDL...BAMD...AND BAMM CALL FOR AN INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF CALL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE STRAIGHT WESTWARD. THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR LITTLE MOTION AS THE SYSTEM GETS STRETCHED ALONG THE ITCZ. GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW MOTION FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH IN DEFERENCE TO THE TROUGH AND THE GFDL FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AS TO HOW MUCH. THE GFS FORECAST A BURST OF SHEAR IN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE TO VALUES THAT WOULD LET THE CYCLONE STRENGTHEN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CANADIAN FORECASTS A MUCH MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...WITH STRONGER SHEAR AND A LONGER TIME BEFORE IT DECREASES. THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL SEEN NEARBY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MAY ALSO BE INHIBITING FACTORS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS BE ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE LESS BULLISH SHIPS MODEL RATHER THAN LEANING TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL. WHILE THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AT 96-120 HR...IT IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW WHAT SHIPS IS FORECASTING. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 11.0N 101.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 11.1N 102.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 11.1N 102.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 11.2N 103.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 11.3N 104.1W 40 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 11.5N 105.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 11.5N 107.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 11.5N 108.5W 45 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 15-Oct-2005 08:40:22 UTC