ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 THE WEAKENING TREND HAS CONTINUED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION AND IS NOT VERY DEEP. T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OTIS IS ALREADY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WITH DRY AIR TO ITS WEST...AND COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE RATE INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. OTIS HAS NOT BEEN MOVING VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO...BUT IT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 6 KT. THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING SHALLOW...AND WILL PROBABLY BE STEERED VERY SLOWLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A VERY SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY MOTION...ON A TRACK PARALLELING THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SINCE OTIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA REMAINS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 23.0N 112.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 23.7N 112.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 24.8N 113.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 26.0N 114.0W 25 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 05/1800Z 28.5N 114.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 06/1800Z 29.0N 114.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 02-Oct-2005 20:40:26 UTC