ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 TWO RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES AND A QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY SOLUTION CONFIRM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TILTED CORE STRUCTURE OF OTIS. APPARENTLY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS HAVING QUITE AN IMPACT ON THE SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DRIER AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AS WELL. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE T-NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO 65 KT FROM AFWA AND TAFB...AND 77 KT FROM SAB RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD WEAKEN OTIS TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HOURS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE SYSTEM TO A DEPRESSION IN 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALSO REFLECT THIS WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/3. OTIS REMAINS WITHIN A BREAK IN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EITHER DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN 72 HOURS OR REFLECT A MERGE/ABSORPTION SCENARIO WITH A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST AS NOGAPS NOW INDICATES. BASED ON THE ECMWF...GFDN...AND GFS MODELS...OTIS COULD BECOME COMPLETELY SHEARED FROM THE MID- LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD...PARALELLING THE BAJA COAST AS A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INITIAL DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN 36 HOURS. AFTERWARD...OTIS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS A DEPRESSION...THEN DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IN 96 HOURS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 22.3N 111.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 23.1N 112.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 24.3N 112.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 26.1N 112.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 27.8N 113.0W 45 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 05/0600Z 29.6N 113.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 06/0600Z 32.0N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 02-Oct-2005 09:10:24 UTC