ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005 OTIS CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE REACHED 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS. OTIS HAS PROBABLY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THEN NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER COOLER WATERS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN BUT OTIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE. | THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS SHOULD BEGIN SOON. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY SEEN PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES. THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CORE OF OTIS NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE FOR 24 HR OR MORE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOTION OF OTIS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...NO CHANGE IN WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 21.9N 111.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 111.9W 90 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 112.4W 85 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 25.0N 113.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 26.5N 113.2W 70 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 04/0600Z 29.5N 113.5W 45 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 05/0600Z 32.5N 113.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 06/0600Z 34.5N 112.0W 20 KT...INLAND $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 01-Oct-2005 08:55:24 UTC