ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005 THE EYE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND ALSO IN RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB... 90 KT FROM SAB... 77 KT FROM AFWA... AND A 30/1059Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 975 MB AND 80 KT. THE MOST RECENT RAW ODT VALUES HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY TO T5.4/99 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/07. NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. HOWEVER... THE 12Z MODELS... INCLUDING THE GFDL AND CANADIAN MODELS... ARE NOW SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECASTS... AND THE CURRENT AND PREVIOUS GFS... NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODEL RUNS IN RECURVING OTIS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48-72 HOURS... AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS LIE MAINLY WITH THE FORECAST MOTION. THE UKMET IS FASTER AND MORE TO THE RIGHT... WHEREAS THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS ARE SLOWER AND ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THOSE TWO EXTREMES. SINCE THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING BETTER THE EVOLUTION OF THE DIGGING LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST... MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH OTIS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... A 120-HOUR POSITION WAS INCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES BASED ON THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE DECOUPLED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE OTIS WILL BE OVER OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS... AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2 KT TO 7 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL... WHICH ONLY BRINGS OTIS UP TO 80 KT IN 12 HOURS... BUT MUCH HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL... WHICH WEAKENS OTIS IMMEDIATELY AND DOWN TO 66 KT IN 24 HOURS. ONE DISTURBING PIECE OF INTENSITY INFORMATION IS THE HIGH ODT VALUE. THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT OTIS COULD REACH CATEGORY 3 STATUS IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE INTENSITY LEVELS OFF OR DECREASES AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER TO 26C SSTS. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY. 12-FT SEAS WERE INCREASED BASED ON 18Z SHIP OBSERVATIONS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 21.6N 111.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 22.3N 111.7W 85 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 23.3N 112.2W 90 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 24.4N 112.4W 80 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 26.2N 113.0W 70 KT...NEAR WEST-CENTRAL BAJA 72HR VT 03/1800Z 28.7N 112.9W 45 KT...NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 96HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 112.0W 25 KT...INLAND NWRN MEXICO 120HR VT 05/1800Z 35.5N 110.0W 20 KT...INLAND ERN ARIZONA $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 30-Sep-2005 20:10:23 UTC