ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2005 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ON THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO WERE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z. THERE IS PLENTY OF ROTATION IN THE MID LEVELS...AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH THE TWO DO NOT APPEAR TO BE EXACTLY CO-LOCATED. NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS ON OR NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL MOTION...USUALLY UNCERTAIN FOR FORMATIVE SYSTEMS...IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/6. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...BUT THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW IS LESS WELL DEFINED. THIS RIDGE DOES NOT EXTEND WESTWARD VERY FAR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SERIES OF TROUGHS TO APPROACH THE BAJA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AN OVERALL MOTION SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF A CLIMATOLOGICAL 285/11-TYPE TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER DIVERGENT...WITH THE GFS TAKING A RELATIVELY STRONG SYSTEM MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST WITH A MUCH SLOWER INITIAL MOTION. GIVEN THE PRESENT SHEARED APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION...I THINK THE GFS SOLUTION IS TOO RAPID TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ATTEMPTS TO BLEND THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z GFDL RUN...THE LAST RUN NOT TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY EASE UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 17.0N 105.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 17.1N 106.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 18.0N 108.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 20.5N 111.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 02/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 03/0600Z 22.0N 113.5W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 28-Sep-2005 09:10:23 UTC