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Tropical Storm NORMA (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2005
 
NORMA HAD CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SOME DEEP CONVECTION JUST WEST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER FOR MOST OF THE DAY... UNTIL VERY RECENTLY WHEN
THE BURST THAT BEGAN AT ABOUT 21Z WENT ON A RAPID DECLINE.  THE
CYCLONE IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE 26C SST ISOTHERM... SO THIS WANING
CONVECTION MIGHT BE THE LAST GASP FOR NORMA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KT REMAINS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE 00Z DVORAK T AND CI
NUMBERS... BUT IT IS NOT LIKELY TO STAY THIS STRONG FOR MUCH
LONGER.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR... COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES... AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING... AND IN 12 TO 24 HOURS NORMA WILL
PROBABLY LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS.
 
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PACE... WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/7.  WHILE THE
CURRENT STEERING RESULTS FROM THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TEXAS... NORMA WILL PROBABLY TURN
WESTWARD TOMORROW AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH.  ONCE THE
CONVECTION COMPLETELY DIES OFF... THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY
THE NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD FORCE THE
REMNANT LOW SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... JUST A LITTLE SLOWER LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 21.0N 115.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 21.5N 116.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 21.7N 117.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 21.5N 118.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 21.2N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     01/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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