Tropical Storm NORMA
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2005 SOME CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE RE-DEVELOPED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE BANDING AND OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING. USING THE MEAN OF DVORAK T- AND C.I.- NUMBERS...WHICH IS ROUTINELY DONE AT THE NHC FOR WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... GIVES A CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 30 KT. NORMA IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME...BUT SINCE IT IS MOVING OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES...SOME MORE FLAREUPS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW. PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALSO DISCOURAGE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. NORMA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW. INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...315/8. TRACK GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES. NORMA SHOULD CONTINUE ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWING THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE...AND THEN THE WEAKENING REMNANT CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TURN WESTWARD AS ITS STEERING BECOMES MOST INFLUENCED BY FLOW IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 20.6N 115.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 21.2N 115.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 21.6N 116.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 21.5N 117.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 28/1800Z 21.3N 118.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/1800Z 20.5N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/1800Z 20.0N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 01/1800Z 20.0N 124.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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