ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005 FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THIS SHEAR IS BEING IMPARTED BY A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF NORMA...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT A CONTINUATION OF THIS REGIME FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. THEREFORE NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SOON. IN FACT...GIVEN THE CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF THE STORM...NORMA MAY WEAKEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/7. STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE PREDICTS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING WESTWARD FROM THIS HIGH...AS A TROUGH NEAR CALIFORNIA LIFTS OUT AND WEAKENS. THIS PATTERN WOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANT...TO TURN MORE WESTWARD IN 3-5 DAYS...AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 18.0N 111.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 18.6N 112.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 19.6N 113.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 21.3N 115.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 29/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/1200Z 21.0N 123.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Sep-2005 14:55:20 UTC