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Tropical Storm NORMA

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TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005
 
FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE CENTER
ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF
POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS SHEAR IS BEING IMPARTED BY
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF NORMA...AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS PREDICT A CONTINUATION OF THIS REGIME FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. 
THEREFORE NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SOON.  IN FACT...GIVEN THE CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF THE STORM...NORMA MAY WEAKEN FASTER THAN
SHOWN BELOW.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/7.  STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED
BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER TEXAS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE PREDICTS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING WESTWARD FROM THIS
HIGH...AS A TROUGH NEAR CALIFORNIA LIFTS OUT AND WEAKENS.  THIS
PATTERN WOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANT...TO TURN
MORE WESTWARD IN 3-5 DAYS...AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER PASCH

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 18.0N 111.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 18.6N 112.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 19.6N 113.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 21.3N 115.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/1200Z 21.0N 123.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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