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Tropical Storm NORMA (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005
 
EASTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED A DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL
STORM THIS EVENING... WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER BECOMING EXPOSED TO
THE EAST OF THE GENERALLY WEAKENING CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK
T NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE SHIPS MODEL
FORECASTS CONTINUED EASTERLY SHEAR AT ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE AS
IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM... THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS... FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE STORM BEGINS MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER CONTINUED MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR.

THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME ALMOST STATIONARY BUT SEEMS TO BE
EDGING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT TWO KNOTS.  THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST SHOULD SOON START DRAGGING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER ALONG...AND
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH SHOULD INDUCE NORMA ALONG A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST AS NORMA WEAKENS AND IS
STEERED MORE BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OF A RIDGE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO ITS NORTHWEST.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 16.8N 110.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 17.4N 111.2W    50 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 18.3N 112.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 19.2N 113.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 20.2N 114.4W    45 KT
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 20.0N 118.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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