Tropical Storm NORMA

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TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005
 
MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATE NORMA HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WHILE BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES NOTED. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE COLD CONVECTIVE
CLOUD MASS... AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY TO
T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/04. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF NORMA REMAINS WEAK... AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THAT WAY
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP NORMA MOVING IN A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION... THEN TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY
48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...  AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING CAUSING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
AND MEXICO. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORMA IS
FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE
CYCLONE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
THE CURRENT MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD... REACHING A MINIMUM OF
ABOUT 8 KT BY 120 HOURS. WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY CALLS
FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NORMA COULD BECOME
A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE COOLER IS
REACHED. BY 72 HOURS... NORMA IS FORECAST TO BE OVER 25C SSTS AND
SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE SHIPS MODEL IS NO LONGER
DISSIPATING NORMA AFTER 72 HOURS AS IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 16.6N 110.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 17.1N 111.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 17.9N 111.9W    60 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 18.8N 112.9W    60 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 19.6N 114.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 20.5N 115.8W    55 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N 118.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     29/1800Z 19.5N 120.5W    40 KT

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