ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005 NORMA'S CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...SAB... AND TAFB RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. THERE IS MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA...AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS FORECAST...AN EASTERLY SHEARING REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE STORM REACHES COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 320/4. NORMA LIES TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. THERE IS DIVERSITY IN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL SHOWING A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK...THE GFS FORECASTING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND THE NOGAPS PREDICTING LITTLE MOVEMENT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. AS A COMPROMISE OF THIS GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 15.6N 109.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 16.1N 109.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 16.9N 110.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 17.7N 111.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 18.5N 111.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 20.0N 113.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 21.5N 114.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 28/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Sep-2005 14:40:22 UTC