ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK BANDING-TYPE EYE...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KT. MAX IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT VERY STRONG...IT APPEARS THAT MAX HAS REACHED ITS MAX INTENSITY... SINCE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO COOL AND THE SYSTEM'S DEEP CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DECREASING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS...AND MAINTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH ONLY FOR A SHORT WHILE. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW AS IT TRAVERSES 23 DEG C WATERS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION...315/9...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MAX IS BEING STEERED BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH CENTERED NEAR TEXAS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING FARTHER WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT IS LIKELY. BY DAYS 4-5...MAX...OR ITS REMNANT...IS LIKELY TO MOVE WEST OR SOUTH OF WEST FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 18.4N 117.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 19.4N 118.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 119.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 21.8N 122.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 22.0N 125.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 22.0N 128.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Sep-2005 02:40:22 UTC