ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING A BANDING EYE FEATURE WITH FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION EVIDENT ON INFRARED IMAGERY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGED FROM T4.0...65 KT...FROM TAFB AND T3.0...45 KT...FROM SAB. AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED 60 KT...JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1336Z THIS MORNING JUSTIFIES INCREASING BOTH THE 34 KT AND 50 KT WIND RADII. DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE RESPRESENTATION ON SATELLITE...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS SMALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT MAY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO REACHING MUCH COOLER WATERS NORTH OF 19N. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 315/8. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STEER MAX IN A WEST- NORTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE STEERING MAX ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE SOUTH IN THE LATER PERIODS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.5N 117.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 18.4N 118.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 19.7N 119.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 20.4N 120.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 124.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 127.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 21.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 19-Sep-2005 21:10:20 UTC