ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTHENING OF TROPICAL STORM MAX. DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS THE CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND HAS WRAPPED AROUND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 3.5 OR 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED OF THIS INFORMATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 55 KT. IMPROVED OUTFLOW FROM THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME EVIDENT FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES MAX TO 60 KT IN 12 HOURS THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AS IT ENCOUNTERS WATERS BELOW 26 DEGREE CELSIUS NORTH OF 18N OR 19N. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/8. A MID-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS SHOULD STEER MAX IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE STEERING MAX ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE SOUTH IN THE LATER PERIODS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 16.7N 116.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 17.5N 117.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 18.7N 118.9W 55 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 19.8N 120.1W 55 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 20.5N 121.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 22.0N 127.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 21.5N 130.0W 20 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 19-Sep-2005 20:55:21 UTC