ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LIDIA HAS REDEVELOPED. DESPITE THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE IS STILL STRUGGLING TO REMAIN ORGANIZED. A HELPFUL 0933Z AMSR-E PASS REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND STILL THIS POSITION MAY NEED TO BE READJUSTED BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 OR 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 40 KT. LIDIA IS CURRENTLY BEING INFLUENCED BY A DISTURBANCE 250 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY HELP TO INFLUENCE BOTH THE FUTURE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN...AND SLOW...280/2. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE DIVERGENT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY BETWEEN LIDIA AND THE DISTURBANCE. THERFORE...THE LARGE SCALE STEERING MAY NOT HAVE AS MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK TAKES LIDIA VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS MAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE OF THE CYCLONE HAS ARRIVED AND IT APPEARS THAT LIDIA AND THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE POSSIBLY TRYING TO MERGE. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHETHER LIDIA WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION OR BE OVERTAKEN BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE UNUSUAL NATURE OF THIS SCENARIO...THE CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW. FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 12.5N 115.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 12.6N 116.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 12.8N 116.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 13.2N 116.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 13.6N 117.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 14.0N 118.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 14.5N 119.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W 45 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 18-Sep-2005 15:10:20 UTC