ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 LIDIA IS NOT LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT. IN FACT...IT IS NOT EASY TO DISTINGUISH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE BROADER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WITHIN WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED. AS NOTED EARLIER...DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLY BEING HINDERED BY THE INFLUENCE OF A DISTURBANCE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED N MI TO THE NORTHEAST. ONLY VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT... AND UNLESS LIDIA STARTS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED SOON...SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE REVISED DOWNWARD. IT CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE TO FIND THE CENTER...BUT BASED ON AN EARLIER...0419Z...SSM/I OVERPASS...IT HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. ANOTHER RELOCATION MAY BE REQUIRED USING VISIBLE IMAGES LATER TODAY. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH...MY CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS NOT FAR FROM WHERE SOME SMALL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN...AND SLOW...270/2. TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT AND IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH STEERING EFFECT WILL BE INDUCED AS A RESULT OF THE INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS A COMPROMISE FOR NOW...A VERY SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS PREDICTED. IT MUST BE ADMITTED...HOWEVER...THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 12.5N 115.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 12.7N 116.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 12.9N 116.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 13.1N 117.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 13.4N 117.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 14.0N 118.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 14.5N 119.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 15.0N 121.0W 45 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 18-Sep-2005 08:40:21 UTC