ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT. DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLY BEING HINDERED BY THE INFLUENCE OF A DISTURBANCE SOME 300 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATTER SYSTEM MAY BE DISRUPTING SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO LIDIA. ONLY VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...BECAUSE THE NEIGHBORING DISTURBANCE MAY CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE STORM. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/4. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE OBJECTIVE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE. STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED...AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF LIDIA IS PROBABLY NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. THE GFS DOES NOT INITIALIZE LIDIA PROPERLY...AND SEEMS TO BE KEYING IN ON THE DISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS RUN...WHICH...BECAUSE OF ITS INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE... AT LEAST STARTS THE STORM IN ABOUT THE CORRECT LOCATION. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 12.4N 116.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 12.5N 116.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 12.7N 117.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 12.9N 117.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 13.2N 118.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 13.5N 119.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 14.0N 120.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 14.5N 121.0W 45 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 18-Sep-2005 02:40:21 UTC