Hurricane KENNETH

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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005

THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...AND AN EYE
IS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THIS
MORNING AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN
THE SHORT TERM...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE CURRENT
TREND IN CENTRAL CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE
PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 36 HOURS. 
AFTERWARDS...INCREASING STABILITY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN KENNETH.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE STEERING WINDS...BETWEEN A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A TROUGH SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENNETH...HAVE BEEN DRIVING THE HURRICANE SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PREDICTED BY THE GFS TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH IN 48 HOURS OR SO.  THIS
FEATURE IS LIKELY TO TURN KENNETH TO THE RIGHT...AND INCREASE THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST RESEMBLES THAT
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY SHIFTED ABOUT A HALF DEGREE TO
THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SYSTEM'S RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD
EXCURSION.

NOTE...IF KENNETH MOVES WEST OF 140W BY 00Z...THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 15.8N 139.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 15.4N 140.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 15.3N 141.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 15.4N 142.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 143.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N 145.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 19.0N 148.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N 151.0W    30 KT
 
 
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