Hurricane KENNETH

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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005
 
KENNETH REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE AND AN EYE HAS RECENTLY
BECOME EVIDENT ON ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT...65 KT...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT.  ALTHOUGH NO
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE SYSTEM
COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS CAUSE WEAKENING LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
KENNETH IS DRIFTING A LITTLE SOUTH OF WESTWARD...260/2...AS IT HAS
BEEN LOCATED IN A REGION OF LIGHT STEERING WINDS BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THIS REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED
SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KENNETH.  THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT...AND ALSO TO INCREASE THE
SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD AND
SIMILAR TO IT IN THE LATTER PERIODS.  THIS IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE...GIVEN THE HISTORY OF SLOW MOTION FOR THIS
SYSTEM.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 16.3N 139.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N 140.1W    65 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 15.8N 140.7W    65 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 15.9N 141.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N 142.6W    60 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 19.5N 147.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N 150.5W    30 KT
 
 
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