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Hurricane KENNETH (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2005
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPARENT CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF KENNETH
OVERNIGHT.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5...OR 55 KT FROM ALL
AGENCIES...BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WHERE THE CENTER IS BEFORE
ADJUSTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS
LOCATED NORTHWEST OF KENNETH AND THIS IS IMPARTING SOME NORTHERLY
OR NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR UNDERNEATH THE OUTFLOW LAYER.  THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE ALSO APPEARS TO BE RATHER DRY.  UNDERNEATH THE WATER IS
STILL WARM...HOWEVER...AND THESE COMPETING FACTORS ARGUE FOR
RELATIVELY MODEST INTENSITY CHANGES.  

THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280/8 IS BASED ON CONTINUITY...AS THERE HAVE
BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES AND THE CENTER CANNOT BE SEEN IN
CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...
WITH THE GFDL/GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE REFLECTING A NORTH TO
NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT AS KENNETH INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM MAX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN TAKING KENNETH SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH...BUT
SLOWER THAN...THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS. 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 15.4N 135.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 15.5N 136.2W    50 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 15.7N 137.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 15.8N 137.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 138.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 16.0N 141.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N 142.0W    40 KT
 
 
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